临近空间高超声速目标跟踪IMMCPF算法

临近空间高超声速目标具有机动特性强、轨迹变化快、强非线性等特点,在目标跟踪的过程中,易出现跟踪精度降低、滤波发散的问题。针对该问题,提出了一种交互式多模型容积粒子滤波算法。使用交互式多模型算法来对临近空间高超声速目标进行跟踪,使用容积粒子滤波算法对目标进行滤波预测。仿真结果表明,该算法跟踪性能优于交互式多模型卡尔曼滤波算法和交互式多模型粒子滤波算法,对临近空间高超声速目标有更好的跟踪效果。     

基于双站红外跟踪临近空间目标研究

临近空间目标飞行器的高速、高机动特性给地面防御系统对其定位和跟踪带来了巨大的困难,传统的滤波算法无法给出精确的目标状态估计,跟踪性能变差。为了更好地满足机动式弹道滤波的需要,通过双站红外跟踪方法与卡尔曼滤波算法相结合,实现对临近空间目标飞行器跟踪,并保证了定位跟踪精度在允许范围之内,Matlab仿真结果验证了算法的有效性。     

临近空间目标交互式多模型跟踪定位算法研究

针对临近空间目标,进行了深入研究,根据临近空间目标状态方程的特点,分析了目标跟踪中常用的卡尔曼滤波和粒子滤波算法的优缺点,并将这2种滤波与交互式多模型算法相结合,提出了交互式多模型-卡尔曼滤波算法和交互式多模型-粒子滤波算法,并通过CV,CA和CT 3种动力学模型进行仿真分析。仿真结果表明,采用这2种算法能够满足跟踪临近空间目标的要求,具有一定的工程实用价值。     

高超声速飞行器新息滤波交互式多模型跟踪算法

研究临近空间高超声速飞行器在运动特点,针对强杂波环境下高速、高机动目标跟踪问题,提出用新息滤波减小观测噪声以修正模型概率更新过程的算法。Monte-Carlo仿真结果表明:该算法可以有效减小量测噪声对系统滤波的影响,提高滤波精度,在临近空间强杂波环境下具有较好的跟踪精度,具有一定工程实用价值。     

基于修正转弯模型的交互多模型跟踪算法

临近空间高超声速飞行器具有极快的飞行速度和独特的机动模式,传统单模型跟踪方法不能对此类目标进行有效跟踪。提出了基于修正转弯模型的交互多模型跟踪算法,该算法修正了转弯模型,利用当前统计模型思想对目标角速度进行实时估计。首先分析了临近空间高超声速目标的特性,然后根据目标运动方程,对目标角速度进行实时估计,最后通过交互多模型实现对临近空间高超声速目标的跟踪。蒙特卡罗仿真结果表明,IMM跟踪算法能够有效跟踪临近空间高超声速目标,且跟踪的精确度、稳定性等明显优于单模型。     

基于渐消因子的双机协同机动目标定位

传统的双机协同组网目标定位模型中,滤波方法大多为交互式多模型算法。交互式多模型算法的缺陷为需要目标机动先验模型,且模型个数的选择难以同时满足工程上关于跟踪精度和算法复杂性的要求。通过引入渐消因子,实时自适应校正机动目标的状态估计偏差,有效降低了目标运动先验模型对滤波的影响,提高了系统的机动处理能力和模型的工程实用性。     

机动目标跟踪的交互式多模型自适应滤波算法

采用"当前"统计模型、匀加速模型以及匀速模型,运用交互式多模型算法的思想,提出了一种用于机动目标跟踪的交互式多模型自适应滤波算法.基本思路是上述三种模型并行工作,利用马尔可夫切换系数在它们之间进行切换,目标状态估计是上述三种模型交互作用的结果.蒙特卡罗结果表明该算法不仅克服了上述三种模型各自的缺点,提高了对机动目标的跟踪精度,同时具有全面自适应跟踪能力.     

交互多模自适应容积Kalman滤波算法设计及履带车辆跟踪应用

为满足履带车辆作为机动目标的实时跟踪和对目标速度、航向角的准确估计,针对测量值含有相关乘性噪声,采用新息分析法依据噪声相关系数已知和未知改进容积Kalman滤波算法。考虑到单模型滤波器难以准确地实现机动目标的跟踪,采用交互式多模型算法对履带车辆运动轨迹进行描述,提出一种交互式多模自适应容积Kalman滤波算法。仿真表明交互式多模型自适应容积Kalman滤波算法对车辆机动具有稳定的跟踪效果且乘性噪声得到有效处理。     

临近空间目标跟踪与预报技术研究

目前临近空间高超声速飞行器发展迅速,临近空间目标跟踪与预报已引起广泛关注。论述了临近空间高超声速飞行器跟踪与预报技术,包括临近空间高超声速机动目标模型、多模型滤波器设计方法、临近空间高超声速机动目标轨迹预报方法等,并提出现有方法存在的主要问题及后续主要研究方向。     

CS模型下IMM-PF算法在机动目标跟踪中的应用

为了解决机动目标定位跟踪问题,提出了一种基于CS(current statistical)模型的交互式多模型粒子滤波算法.在交互式多模型粒子滤波算法的基础上,计算CS模型的概率,自适应地调整CS模型中的目标加速度,反映出了目标的机动特性,充分发挥2种算法的优点,改善了CS模型的加速度不能自适应调整的缺点,提高了CS模型的自适应性和应用范围.另外,CS模型的自适应滤波方法由Kalman滤波改为粒子滤波.通过Monte Carlo对比仿真试验表明了该算法的可行性和优越性.     

Terrorism,insurgency, kidnapping,and security in Africa's energy sector

Energy continues to serve as the bedrock of modern economies and the main driver of modern society. For Africa, the production and supply of energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, biomass, biofuels and other renewables are an important source of employment, rents, taxes, royalties and profits. This sector brings in several tens of billions of dollars of revenue annually. The production and delivery of such resources, however, depend on critical infrastructures such as pipelines, refineries, processing plants, terminals, rigs, electrical energy pylons, substations, pump stations, vessels, and tankers. These infrastructures have been attacked by terrorists, insurgents, vandals and saboteurs, all of whom see them as targets against which to register their grievances and extract concessions from the state. This paper is a chronological account of some of the documented incidents of terrorism, insurgency, kidnapping, destruction, sabotage, and human casualties suffered in the oil and gas sectors in Africa between 1999 and 2012. It is based on data extracted from the databases of the RAND Database of World Terrorism Incidents and the University of Maryland's Global Terrorism Database (GTD).     

Helping hands: civil–military cooperation and Italy's military operation abroad

In the Post-Bipolar Era the growing complexity of the military operations requires a new approach for the resolution of international crises. Since the end of the Cold War, peace support operations (PSO) have become the mainstay and principal occupation of most Western armies. At the same time, Italy has been one of the most important actors in such an area. The article focuses on the cooperation between military and civil components (a process called CIMIC) as a key variable in the Italian PSOs. We will analyse in detail the main lessons learned from past military interventions as well as the general context in which new tendencies are taking place. The maintaining of a minimum security frame becomes essential to fulfil activities ‘collateral’ to the mission: reconstructing services and infrastructure, food distribution, water and medication, law and order, de-mining, training of local forces, and supporting local institutions. These are the main tasks to obtain thrust and support from the population.     

Tacit support for terrorism: The rapprochement between the USSR and Palestinian guerrilla organizations following the 1967 war

This article demonstrates the inconsistent and wavering Soviet attitude towards national liberation movements in general and the Palestinian organizations in particular. Until the late 1960s, the Soviets viewed these organizations with suspicion, hesitating to engage in political dialogue with them. However, in the 1970s, political and military events in the region, as well as modifications in the Kremlin's Cold War strategies, led to a general shift towards the Middle East in Soviet foreign policy. Soviet leaders showed increased willingness to provide certain Palestinian organizations with arms with which to conduct terrorist activities against Israeli, pro-Israeli, Jewish and Western targets. The article explores the complex relations between Palestinian organizations and the USSR in the field of international terror. The study also exposes and analyzes the nature and content of Soviet–Palestinian arms dialogues and transactions. It provides clear evidence that Soviet policymakers and other luminaries were fully informed of, and sometimes directly involved in, these transactions and dialogues at the highest levels.     

A1 Qaeda and the radical Islamic challenge to western strategy

The September 11 global crisis prompted by the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon raises major questions concerning the nature and trajectory of terrorism in the post-Cold War global order. Hitherto, terrorism has been largely debated by analysts at the level of nation states. Terrorist and insurgent movements have also been largely anchored in nationalist and ethnic power bases even when they have sought to mobilise a transnational ideological appeal on religious or class grounds. There have been a few exceptions to this pattern such as the alliance between the German Baader-Meinhof group and the Japanese Red Army Faction, but even such international alliances as this did not, until at least the 1980s, presage anything like a global terrorist network necessitating a global strategic response. This study examines terrorism and global strategic responses.     

Helping hands: external support for the KNU insurgency in Burma

This article analyses to what extent the Burmese KNU insurgency made use of external support from states, refugees, and diasporas. Based on extensive fieldwork it is concluded that support from neighbouring states and refugees has for years kept the Karen rebellion alive. Western countries perceived forms of resistance to the illegitimate Burmese regime as just and have therefore played a crucial role in the continuation of conflict in Karen State. It is important that policymakers and donors as well as executing organizations continue to reflect critically on the way they exercise their work.     

基于GTST-DMLD-ESD的装备RMS建模仿真

装备的RMS是装备的重要设计参数,是影响战备完好和保障能力的关键因素.引入GTST-DMLD作为主要建模工具,建立起装备系统的RMS描述模型,以ESD为补充和扩展,对维修过程进行建模.并以GTST-DMLD-ESD模型作为装备RMS仿真的核心,对装备RMS仿真模型的总体框架进行了研究,并对各模块进行了较为详细的探讨.     

Cyber sheiks and grassroots jihadis: the war in Syria and the devolution of the Bosnian Salafi communities

ABSTRACT

What was the scope of the Bosnian jihadi participation in the war in Syria? Did the Bosnian volunteers tend to join one particular faction? Why did the Bosnian youngsters decide to join the holy war in the Levant? Was this an organized and hierarchical process or was this a grassroots movement? Last, were all the Salafis in Bosnia supportive of this dynamic or did this process cause internal frictions? These are some of the questions that this research will try to answer.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

Traffickers,terrorists, and a ‘new security challenge’: Russian counternarcotics strategy and the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade

The collapse of the Soviet Union precipitated the massive expansion of drug use and trade in Russia. The country now has one of the largest populations of injecting drug users in the world and has become the largest single-country market for Afghan heroin. In 2003 the Federal Service for the Control of the Drugs Trade was created to coordinate a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy appropriate to the scale of this threat. The service continues to face a number of challenges in its early stages of development. However, it has made considerable advances in improving responses to large-scale organised crime and in building international cooperation.