马尔科夫对称离散信道级联信道容量研究

基于有限维的级联马尔科夫对称信道矩阵,其转移概率的极限一定存在,推导出当n足够大时,输出符号的概率分布不依赖于输入的概率分布,使得信道容量为零,信道阻塞。n为信道级联的上限。针对主对角元素概率值不同将信道矩阵划分为惰性信道和灵敏信道,并通过仿真分析得出信道的级联上限n与矩阵维数无关,与信道矩阵主对角元素呈正相关。     

Bayesian analysis of queues with impatient customers: Applications to call centers

Queuing models have been extensively used in the literature for obtaining performance measures and developing staffing policies. However, most of this work has been from a pure probabilistic point of view and has not addressed issues of statistical inference. In this article, we consider Bayesian queuing models with impatient customers with particular emphasis on call center operations and discuss further extensions. We develop the details of Bayesian inference for queues with abandonment such as the M/M/s + M model (Erlang‐A). In doing so, we discuss the estimation of operating characteristics and its implications on staffing. We illustrate the implementation of the Bayesian models using actual arrival, service, and abandonment data from call centers. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

A generalized assignment model for dynamic supply chain capacity planning

We consider a generalization of the well‐known generalized assignment problem (GAP) over discrete time periods encompassed within a finite planning horizon. The resulting model, MultiGAP, addresses the assignment of tasks to agents within each time period, with the attendant single‐period assignment costs and agent‐capacity constraint requirements, in conjunction with transition costs arising between any two consecutive periods in which a task is reassigned to a different agent. As is the case for its single‐period antecedent, MultiGAP offers a robust tool for modeling a wide range of capacity planning problems occurring within supply chain management. We provide two formulations for MultiGAP and establish that the second (alternative) formulation provides a tighter bound. We define a Lagrangian relaxation‐based heuristic as well as a branch‐and‐bound algorithm for MultiGAP. Computational experience with the heuristic and branch‐and‐bound algorithm on over 2500 test problems is reported. The Lagrangian heuristic consistently generates high‐quality and in many cases near‐optimal solutions. The branch‐and‐bound algorithm is also seen to constitute an effective means for solving to optimality MultiGAP problems of reasonable size. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

Transverse relaxation characteristic and stress relaxation model considering molecular chains of HTPB coating based on pre-strained thermal aging

In order to accurately describe the transverse relaxation characteristic and stress relaxation modulus of HTPB coating during pre-strain thermal aging process, a one month thermal aging test was carried out at 70 C with pre-strain of 0％, 3％, 6％ and 9％, respectively. The low-field 1H NMR and stress relaxation modulus tests were carried out for HTPB coating at different aging stages. The stress relaxation model considering the molecular chains was proposed according to the changes of crosslinking chain and dangling chain of HTPB coating during pre-strain aging. The results showed that with the increase of aging time, the decay rate of transverse relaxation curve became faster, the transverse relaxation time decreased, the value of combined parameter qMrl increased, the proportion of crosslinking chain decreased, while the proportion of dangling chain increased. Moreover, the stress relaxation modulus increased, the crosslinking network structure of HTPB coating became denser and the degree of cross-linking increased. At the initial aging stage, the pre-strain will destroy the crosslinking network structure of HTPB coating to a certain extent. With the increase of aging time, the effect of pre-strain will gradually weaken and the influence of aging on materials will gradually increase. The correlations between the stress relaxation model considering the molecular chains and the test results were more than 0.9950, which can accurately describe the stress relaxation modulus of HTPB coating during the pre-strain thermal aging process.     

二维隐马氏模型的一种简化算法及其参数估计

针对现有的二维隐马氏模型算法给出了一种简化算法及参数估计方法。该算法与现有的算法相比非常简单。基于此方法给出了相应的识别方法和参数估计,并且该估计与极大似然估计是等同的。     

装备物资供应链构建初探

从供应链及供应链管理理论的思想角度出发 ,构建了装备物资供应链的结构模型 ,分析了其所具有的一些基本特征 ,为装备物资供应的胜利实施提供了一个新的思考方向     

攻击机突防链型国土防空系统效能分析

封锁式防空和阻击式防空一般采用火力区相互接壤而形成链式防空,链式防空用于疆土防御.根据防空系统的任务和规模(国土防空、部队战场防空、海上舰队防空)以及入侵方式、武器性能特点的不同.基于随机理论建立了敌方采用同类武器组成链式防空体系,攻击机采用火力对抗条件下的国土突防模型.对基于随机理论的攻击机突防链型国土防空系统效能进行了一些假设和简化,建立了初步的效能模型,提供了一个分析的思路和方法.     

Retailer's rationale to refuse consumer returns in supply chains

While accepting consumer returns has long been proposed as a solution to resolve the consumer valuation uncertainty problem, there are still a sizable portion of retailers who insist on a “no return” policy. In this article, we offer an economic rationale for these seemingly unreasonable strategies in a supply chain context. We demonstrate when and why the retailer may benefit from refusing consumer returns, even though offering consumer returns allows the supply chain to implement the expostmarket segmentation. Granting the retailer the right to refuse consumer returns may sometimes improve supply chain efficiency: it eliminates the manufacturer's attempt to induce inefficient consumer returns and bring the equilibrium back to that in the vertically integrated benchmark. We also find that the refund and the retail price can move in the opposite directions when product reliability varies, and consumer returns have a nontrivial impact on the quality choice. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 686–701, 2015     

Inventory management with advance capacity information

An important aspect of supply chain management is dealing with demand and supply uncertainty. The uncertainty of future supply can be reduced if a company is able to obtain advance capacity information (ACI) about future supply/production capacity availability from its supplier. We address a periodic‐review inventory system under stochastic demand and stochastic limited supply, for which ACI is available. We show that the optimal ordering policy is a state‐dependent base‐stock policy characterized by a base‐stock level that is a function of ACI. We establish a link with inventory models that use advance demand information (ADI) by developing a capacitated inventory system with ADI, and we show that equivalence can only be set under a very specific and restrictive assumption, implying that ADI insights will not necessarily hold in the ACI environment. Our numerical results reveal several managerial insights. In particular, we show that ACI is most beneficial when there is sufficient flexibility to react to anticipated demand and supply capacity mismatches. Further, most of the benefits can be achieved with only limited future visibility. We also show that the system parameters affecting the value of ACI interact in a complex way and therefore need to be considered in an integrated manner. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011