恐怖活动中公众心理恐惧效应对社会稳定的影响及对策

恐怖活动往往导致公众的巨大心理恐惧效应,极易造成一定程度甚至是大规模的社会恐慌,严重影响社会稳定。因此,降低公众对恐怖袭击活动的心理恐惧效应、提高其心理承受能力,对恐怖活动发生时维护社会稳定具有重要意义。     

世界军演凸现五大特点

冷战结束后,国际安全形势发生了深刻变化,恐怖活动成为当今世界的主要威胁。为此,世界各国纷纷调整自己的军事战略和安全战略,并相应地进行教育训练,加强和加大了军事训练和演习的力度。从当今世界各国军事演习的情况看,主要呈现出以下新的特点。根据需要进行各种规模的军事演习为适应当今世界安全形势的需求,世界     

特警雄风——记中国特种警察部队

当今世界,世界格局发生重大转变,宗教民族冲突不断,走私、贩毒成风,国际恐怖、犯罪活动日益猖獗。为了应付有组织的恐怖活动和突发性事件,世界各个国家都纷纷组建了具有本     

核化生恐怖特点与对策研究

当前,恐怖主义已成为危害国际社会安全的一个主要因素,在爆炸、劫持等传统恐怖活动日益猖獗的同时,核化生恐怖活动的危害也在不断加剧,据不完全统计,从1960年至今,全世界共发生了270多起核化生恐怖事件,特别是震惊世界的东京地铁沙林事件和“9.11”后美国的炭疽恐怖事件,给国际社会造成了巨大恐慌,并对国际恐怖组织起到了刺激和示范作用,在2004年3至4月不到一个月时间内,就在英国和约旦先后发生了两起较大的未遂化学     

简论当代恐怖活动的特点及产生恐怖活动的原因

当今世界 ,恐怖活动已成为世界公害 ,引起各国的普遍谴责和高度关注。武警部队作为社会治安的维护者 ,在反恐斗争中负有重要责任 ,了解现代恐怖主义和恐怖活动的特点及产生的原因 ,对于我们采取有针对性的反恐斗争措施 ,具有一定的启示作用。     

消灭一切海上恐怖 还给海洋一片宁静

去年岁尾，中国通过《2002年中国的国防》白皮书向世界郑重宣告：中国政府主张，国际社会应加强对话和磋商，开展合作。共同防范和打击国际恐怖活动，努力消除产生恐怖主义的根源。无论恐怖主义发生在何时何地，针对何人，以何种方式出现，国际社会都应共同努力，坚决予以谴责和打击。     

声音

“来自‘基地’组织的威胁不会很快结束，尽管我们在过去几个月铲除了多名‘基地’组织领导人，但他们还会继续招募新人、进行恐怖活动并钻美国社会开放性的空子。我们应当永不放松警惕，以防止这个恐怖组织对我们实施恐怖活动。”     

漫谈“三位一体”反恐情报保障体制

恐怖主义一直是威胁国际社会和平与发展的公害。"9·11"恐怖袭击的发生,标志着恐怖主义迈向了新的发展阶段,其手段、目标及结果都具有以往的恐怖活动所     

共筑反恐防线 同护社会平安——浅析新形势下的全民防暴恐

<正>长期以来国家安全和社会稳定一直是我国当前的主旋律,只有国家安全和社会稳定,我们的发展之路才能不断推进。近些年来,国际恐怖主义及其破坏活动成为影响世界安全与稳定的一个突出因素。当前社会暴恐活动以及带有恐怖主义色彩的个人极端行为频发。根据公开的资料显示当前恐怖主义的主要特点表现为:一是恐怖活动日趋政治化;二是恐怖活动具体方式日益多样化;三是恐怖活动呈现跨国化趋势;     

生化恐怖袭击及其应对策略

本文指出了生化恐怖活动发展的历史趋势、分析了大规模生化恐怖活动兴起的原因 ,并分析了恐怖分子获得生化武器的可能性 ,对于可能发生的大规模生化恐怖活动提出了的应对策略     

Social capital and terrorism

Many studies of terrorism explain the use of violence against civilians with political or economic forces, often relegating social variables to the margins. Social factors, specifically societal-level social capital, play a far more important role in explaining patterns of terrorist activity than previously recognized. Social capital can exert pressures that act as both restraint and catalyst for terrorism, making explicit exposition of these differential effects critical. Analysis shows that higher stocks of social capital positively correlate with the number of terrorist groups, but the average attack activity of those groups increase as measures of social capital decline. The complex relationship makes it difficult to draw simple policy implications, but it does offer insight into the role that social dynamics play in terrorist activity.     

社会发展悖论与和谐社会建设的相关性分析及对策建议

和谐社会建设的根本目的是要实现人与人、人与自然关系的和谐,但所面临的市场经济的个人主义价值理念与社会主义共同理想之价值理念的对立、现代社会不平衡运行机制与社会主义制度对社会成员共同富裕、共同发展的社会承诺的背反、经济社会发展与自然生息发展的矛盾,却对和谐社会建设起着很大的制约作用,必须采取综合性的有效对策,才能加快和谐社会建设步伐,并真正取得实效。     

Ethnic groups,political exclusion and domestic terrorism

This study examines whether the exclusion of ethnic groups from political power is an important contributing factor to domestic terrorism. To empirically test this question, we employ a negative binomial regression estimation on 130 countries during the period from 1981 to 2005. We find that countries in which certain ethnic populations are excluded from political power are significantly more likely to experience domestic terrorist attacks and to suffer from terrorist casualties; furthermore, ethnic group political exclusion is a more consistent and substantive predictor of domestic terrorist activity than general political repression or economic discrimination.     

IN SEARCH OF THE AVERAGE TRANSNATIONAL TERRORIST ATTACK VENUE

In this paper we develop an empirical model for transnational terrorist activity for a panel consisting of 139 countries over the period 1985–1998. Essentially, we attempt to sketch the profile of the average terrorist attack venue. Our findings suggest that the terrorist attack venue is, on average, characterized by low economic openness, high demographic stress, and a high level of international disputes. Furthermore, we document a strong regional component suggesting the presence of infectious contagion on a spatial level. Our results also support the presence of addictive contagion captured by a strong autoregressive component in each country’s terrorist activity. Finally, we find a weak statistical link between the level of democracy and terrorist activity, although the level of democracy is a significant determinant of the potential under‐reporting bias of terrorist activity.     

State and society in Asia

India and China are the 2 most populous countries of the world; in the 1950s, both countries initiated a centrally planned program for rapid development within vastly differing political systems. China embarked India's policy encouraged only voluntary acceptance of family planning. In both cases, however, government involvement in population forms a part of comprehensive national planning. Both countries rely on a limited resource base and technological sophistication in order to alleviate mass poverty and misery. The political implications of population growth cannot be neatly isolated from those that are generated by social and economic forces of change in a society that is in a transitional stage of modernization and development. Development has not been an unmixed bleesing; population growth is one of its counterproductive outcomes. The development process has begun to draw increasing attention to hitherto neglected correlates of fertility decline, such as a reduction in infant mortality, universal education, improvement in women's status, and women's participation in economic activity outside the home, all of which eventually result in greater demand for family planning services. Both the Indian and Chinese models highlight the importance of taking the people into one's confidence; the response of the common people to official initiatives is critical in securing a reduction in fertility levels. China has adopted a 1 child family policy, yet it is unreasonable to expect that the Indian people would agree to a nationally prescribed family size norm below 2 children. The principal determinant of future population trends in both these countries is the course of their politics. The success of developing countries will be assured if the developed nations support their progress without being worried about their population growth, which is the result of their unavoidable failure to modernize their social and economic structures.     

SUICIDE TERRORISM AND THE BACKLASH EFFECT

This paper presents a game‐theoretic model of suicide terrorism containing three agents: the terrorist leader; a targeted government; and potential terrorist supporters. Supporters join the terrorist group if they gain more from their participation than from their economic opportunities. Preemptive measures by the government can result in a backlash that encourages recruitment through new grievances. Suicide attacks can also lead to recruitment. Increases in preemption costs and/or economic opportunities can reduce the overall level of terrorism, while increasing the proportion of suicide to normal attacks. An increase in the effect of preemption on recruitment, or the propaganda effect of suicide bombings has the opposite effect of increasing normal and suicide attacks, but decreasing the proportion of suicide to normal attacks in the terrorist organization’s strategy profile.     

TERRORISM AND DETERRENCE POLICY WITH TRANSNATIONAL SUPPORT 1

This study provides an explanation of terrorism by examining interactions between the terrorist group with a minority as a potential pool of recruits and the government supported by a majority. A hawkish deterrence policy makes it more risky for terrorists to launch attacks, but heightens the anti‐government feeling of the terrorist group. In addition, the payoff for the government depends not only on the payoff loss associated with the level of terrorism, but also on the political payoff from the action itself of adopting a hawk policy due to its politicians’ vested interests. We first show that whether the deterrence policy should be ‘hawk to ‘dove is closely dependent on the relationships among the risk associated with terrorism, the anti‐government feeling of the terrorist group, and the political payoff for the government. This study then introduces transnational support enhancing the capability of a terrorist group to intensify its activity and shows that the emergence of transnational support may cause the government to reform its deterrence policy from ‘dove’ toward ‘hawk,’ with terrorism intensified in the society.     

A cost–benefit analysis of terrorist attacks

A cost–benefit analysis of terrorist attacks is developed and placed within a systematic theoretical structure. For the target or object of the attack, we consider the lost value of human lives, lost economic value, and lost influence value, counted as benefits for the terrorist. The corresponding losses for the terrorist are counted as costs. The terrorist attacks if benefits outweigh costs. Bounded rationality is enabled where the three kinds of benefits and costs can be weighted differently. We account for two ex ante probabilities of successful planning and attack, and enable the terrorist to assign different weights to its multiple stakeholders. We introduce multiple time periods, time discounting, attitudes towards risk, and subcategories for the benefits and costs. The cost–benefit analysis is illustrated with the 11 September 2001 attack, and 53 incidents in the Global Terrorism Database yielding both positive and negative expected utilities. The paper is intended as a tool for scientists and policy-makers, as a way of thinking about costs and benefits of terrorist attacks.     

大学文化建设是构建和谐校园的根本

高等院校要全面承担起重大的社会责任，要在构建和谐社会中最大限度的发挥辐射力和影响力，要在国家经济社会发展中起着先导性和全局性的作用，最根本的是必须深入贯彻落实科学发展观，全面加强大学文化的建设，努力提升大学拥有的深厚文化底蕴和水平品位，不断提高大学的核心竞争力，把大学建成人类社会的知识权威和发展人类先进文化的重要基地。     

自杀式恐怖袭击对警卫工作的威胁及其防范

近年来，越来越多的恐怖组织选择了自杀式恐怖袭击作为实现自身目的的方式，给世界各国人民的生命财产安全带来了深重的灾难，也给警卫工作带来了严重威胁。了解自杀式恐怖袭击的攻击目标、手段，认识其对警卫工作的严重危害，认真思考防范、打击对策，对确保警卫安全具有重要的现实意义。