The relevance of the Gulf of Guinea in global energy politics

Africa and for that matter the Gulf of Guinea cannot be indifferent to the global energy politics of the 21st century. The increasing importance of the region has attracted major actors in the energy sector. The competing interests of these actors are played out in various forms. This heightened interest in the region, especially with the discovery of oil in huge commercial quantities, has brought the importance of the area into focus in global oil politics. This paper looks at the importance of the region in light of the huge energy potentials of the Gulf of Guinea and how the institution of proper governance systems could serve as an important factor in ensuring the proper management of the resource.     

Pirates – The Young and the Jobless: The Effect of Youth Bulges and Youth Labor Market Integration on Maritime Piracy

This article examines the impact of youth bulges and the lack of perspective of this cohort associated with the insufficient absorption of the labor market on the emergence of piracy acts. For a large panel data-set on maritime piracy and armed robbery against ships for the period 1990–2015 negative binomial regression results indicate that a large fraction of young people in a country increases the likelihood of piracy attacks originating from that country. Further, the piracy-driving effect is conditional on constrains in the labor market. It increases when the young population is insufficiently integrated into the labor market and becomes insignificant for high levels of labor force participation. The dearth of prospects seems to lower the inhibition to make a living from criminal activity.     

Exploring the economic motivation of maritime piracy

This paper presents two hypotheses regarding the relationship between marine fisheries and maritime piracy. These hypotheses are based on the opportunity and willingness framework and describe how fish values and production can drive fishermen to engage in illegal activities, and the mechanisms that their capabilities and choices make available to them stipulate the forms that piracy takes when facing a declining fishing economy. The hypotheses are tested with the Maritime Piracy Data (MPD) using the negative binomial regression and the bivariate Poisson model. This study uses the instrumental variable approach to deal with endogeneity through two instruments: chlorophyll concentrations and temperature. The statistical analysis shows that unsophisticated piracy attacks are sensitive to fish production, but sophisticated attacks can be affected by both fish production and fish values and depend on the opportunity cost of existing fisheries and finding work in other industries.     

Evasion policies for a vessel being chased by pirate skiffs

Piracy attack is a serious safety problem for maritime transport worldwide. Whilst various strategic actions can be taken, such as rerouting vessels and strengthening navy patrols, this still cannot completely eliminate the possibility of a piracy attack. It is therefore important for a commercial vessel to be equipped with operational solutions in case of piracy attacks. In particular, the choice of a direction for rapidly fleeing is a critical decision for the vessel. In this article, we formulate such a problem as a nonlinear optimal control problem. We consider various policies, such as maintaining a straight direction or making turns, develop algorithms to optimize the policies, and derive conditions under which these policies are effective and safe. Our work can be used as a real‐time decision making tool that enables a vessel master to evaluate different scenarios and quickly make decisions.     

Maritime security and capacity building in the Gulf of Guinea: On comprehensiveness,gaps, and security priorities

It is widely acknowledged that maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea is a highly complex phenomenon involving a variety of issues (legal deficiencies, inadequate military equipment, and challenges like corruption, political unrest and youth unemployment) as well as a multiplicity of external responders. To make sense of the impact that external actors have when they address this complex problem through various maritime capacity building endeavours, this article argues that there is a need to understand the attractiveness of capacity building vis-à-vis the widely acknowledged need for a comprehensive approach, as well as the difficulties of translating the potential for comprehensiveness into practice (as important aspects of the problem remain largely unaddressed). Further, it is argued that it is important to appreciate that even if these gaps – i.e. the aspects that maritime capacity building currently leaves unaddressed – represent a ‘failure’ to deliver a comprehensive response, they are at the same time illustrative of how the maritime capacity building activities of various external actors also ‘succeed’ in having an impact on this regional security landscape – for instance, by influencing how certain aspects of this multifaceted problem are prioritised, whilst others are only marginally addressed, if at all.     

Smart Power and Japan’s Self-Defense Forces

Abstract

From Iraq to the Gulf of Aden and the South Pacific, this paper evaluates how far theoretical ideas about smart power manifest in operational missions of the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF). To function within a ‘smart’ power context, this paper suggests that JSDF operates in ‘assisting’ mode, rather than the ‘threatening’ behavior of ‘hard’ power. JSDF also deployed alongside other Japanese ‘soft’ power tools – diplomatic, cultural, developmental, and NGOs, using tailored programs for different cultural and geographical contexts. Given constitutional constraints and public sensitivity towards coercive force, JSDF missions could be integrated more into a ‘whole-of-government’ approach advancing foreign policy goals through ‘smart power’.     

Reinterpreting Libya's WMD Turnaround – Bridging the Carrot-Coercion Divide

The dominant explanations of Libya's nuclear reversal in 2003 privilege either coercion or carrots treating these instruments as alternatives. Indoing so they ignore that it took a combination of coercion, carrots and confidence-building to turn Libya around. This article demonstrates this by developing and deploying a theoretical framework that integrates these three instruments into a more coherent and convincing explanation of the case. It highlights that analysts and policy-makers would do well to focus more on how different policy tools can be used in combination to achieve desired outcomes than on how individual tools can be employed with decisive effects. It also demonstrates that the Libya success will be hard to replicate.     

Maritime interdiction in Sri Lanka's counterinsurgency

A comprehensive maritime interdiction strategy to attack the insurgent's logistic system was a key element in the defeat of the Tamil Tigers. The campaign of maritime interdiction required the Sri Lankan Navy (SLN) to attack LTTE arms smuggling, sea piracy, and maritime terrorism. The SLN degraded the insurgency's robust maritime logistical network while also devising tactics to engage the maritime insurgents who reacted with swarm and suicide boat tactics. The efforts of the SLN forced the Tamil Tigers to confront the government's final land offensives with diminished resources, thus collapsing a three decades’ old insurgency in a matter of months.     

Fighting maritime piracy: three lessons from pompeius magnus

Piracy in international waters is on the rise again, in particular off the coast of Somalia. While the dynamic game between pirates, ship-owners, insurance firms and the military seems to have reached some kind of equilibrium, piracy risks generating significant negative externalities to third parties (e.g. in terms of environmental hazards and terrorism), justifying attempts to contain it. We argue that these attempts may benefit from a look back – through the analytical lens of rational choice theory – to the most successful counterpiracy campaign ever undertaken, namely, the one led by the Roman general Gnaeus Pompeius Magnus (Pompey the Great) in 67 BC.     

Human security in Burundi: The view from below (by youth)

Firearms have played a significant role in exacerbating invidious forms of violence in Papua New Guinea. Victimisation rates in the National Capital District (NCD) are amongst the highest in the world. Port Moresby, the country's largest and fastest growing urban centre, accounts for some 34 per cent of all nationally reported crimes, despite accounting for only 5 per cent of the country's population. The Southern Highlands Province (SHP) is also rife with violent armed conflict. This feature reports on the findings from an armed violence assessment administered in NCD and SHP by the Small Arms Survey with support from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). This assessment yields a number of critical and counter-intuitive findings that take issue with the conventional wisdom concerning armed violence in Papua New Guinea and should influence prospective interventions to mitigate insecurity and reduce arms availability and demand.     

海湾战争中的电子战

海湾战争是一场高技术战争。本文对海湾战争中的电子战进行了综述,介绍了电子侦察、电子干扰的使用情况,并对这次电子战的特点进行了分析。     

Convoys to combat Somali piracy

As the world becomes increasingly globalized, interruptions to international trade cannot be permitted. Piracy off the coast of Somalia has hampered international trade in the region and poses significant risks to the sailors required to navigate those waters. Over the past three years the global community has attempted, through a number of different naval tactics, to stop these acts of piracy; however, these tactics have proven ineffective. This article looks at historical precedence and military theory to support the concept of using convoys to protect the thousands of cargo vessels traveling round the Horn of Africa every year. This tactic will greatly decrease the number of successful pirate attacks and save countless lives in the process.     

NUCLEAR REDUCTIONS AND MIDDLE EAST STABILITY

The United States faces a series of strategic and policy conundrums as it attempts to promote strategic stability in the Persian Gulf and the wider Middle East. This article examines the relationship between a reduced US nuclear arsenal and strategic stability in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. It argues that a series of interrelated political and military factors play a much more significant role in regional security and stability than the US strategic arsenal, which has never, with a few extraordinary exceptions, played a direct role in maintaining regional security. The United States has constructed a system of regional stability based on conventional deterrence and defense that has seen it forward base forces at various installations in the region in combination with efforts to arm, train, and equip host-nation militaries. Nuclear weapons have never played a prominent role in this regional system. Evidence presented in this article suggests that there is no compelling reason for the United States to abandon and/or modify the defensive system of conventional deterrence and defense by adding nuclear-backed guarantees to the mix.     

From control to parasitism

This article sets out to investigate the current paradoxical roles of border control agencies in order to contribute to the theoretical debate on border porosity and related security issues in West Africa. The colonial demarcation of African borders accounts for their porous nature initially, as borderland populations challenged the unjust scission of their cultural, economic, geographical and geopolitical spaces. However, new forms of porosity also evolved over time, masterminded by new actors. Drawing on the Ghana–Togo border case, and through interviews, observation and documentary analysis, this article argues that border control agencies are partly responsible for the current border porosity and attendant security problems as their jurisdiction has shifted to a multi-layered border parasitism. The article is not, however, an attack on border law enforcement agencies; rather it attempts to explore their roles in shielding the region, already exposed to terrorism and piracy, from further security threats.     

Comparing rational choice and prospect theory analyses: The US decision to launch operation ‘desert storm’, January 1991

The purpose of this article is to compare an expected utility rational actor model of decision making with a Prospect theory psychological model of decision making. Each theory is presented and then applied to the well known case surrounding the United States’ decision to launch Operation ‘Desert Storm’ in January 1991 at the outset of the Gulf War. Our goal is not to present new findings concerning the origins or outcomes of the Gulf conflict so much as to use the case to compare and illuminate the similarities and differences of these two theoretical approaches. Our approach does not assume that these two models are necessarily mutually incompatible alternatives. Our goal is to analyze this case in order to discover the comparative advantages and disadvantages of each model, and to determine how much analytic purchase can be gained by combining them. Finally, we offer some conclusions concerning this contrast.     

Forecasting a Hurricane: Israeli and American Estimations of the Khomeini Revolution

The surprising ‘Arab Spring’ raises the question as to what would enable national intelligence to provide high quality warnings prior to the eruption of popular revolutions. This article uses new sources of evidence to trace and explain Israel's success in comparison to US failure at correctly estimating the course of the Iranian Revolution in 1977–79. In explaining this variance, the article shows that it was mainly the result of the intimate acquaintance of Israel's representatives in Iran with the local language, history and culture, as well as the ability to communicate with locals – tools which the Americans completely lacked.     

Opportunistic retooling of a flexible machine subject to failure

A set of jobs can be processed without interruption by a flexible machine only if the set of tools required by all jobs can be loaded in the tool magazine. However, in practice the total number of tools required by a job set would exceed the tool magazine capacity. In such situations, the job set has to be carefully partitioned at the start of the production run such that each partition can be processed without interruption. During the production run, if there are unscheduled machine downtimes due to machine failure, this provides an additional opportunity to optimally retool the magazine for a smaller job set consisting of just the unprocessed jobs. In this paper, we study job sequencing rules that allow us to minimize the total expected cost of machine down time due to machine failures and magazine retooling, assuming a dynamic re‐sequencing of the unprocessed jobs after each machine failure. Using these rules, we develop a branch‐and‐bound heuristic that allows us to solve problems of reasonable size. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 79–97, 2001     

大型光学表面纳米精度制造

纳米精度光学表面在光刻技术、同步辐射、空间观测和惯约聚变等领域有重大需求。随着装备性能需求的不断提升,这些光学系统对光学零件面形精度和表面质量的要求几乎接近于物理极限,对光学制造技术提出了更高挑战,使光学制造成为纳米制造技术的发展前沿。通过攻克纳米量级材料去除的稳定性、复杂曲面可控补偿和装备运动轴性能设计等关键问题,掌握了以磁流变和离子束抛光技术为代表的可控柔体抛光技术,利用自主研发的抛光制造装备和工艺实现了典型光学零件的纳米精度制造,为国家相关科技项目的顺利实施提供有力的制造技术支撑。     

Cyber War Will Not Take Place

A large collection of captured documents from the very highest levels of the Iraqi government offers a chance to gain insight into why Saddam Hussein was unwilling and unable to alter his strategy on the eve of the 2003 war that toppled his regime. This paper explores some of the perceptions and misperceptions that Saddam Hussein took away from the 1991 Gulf War and shows how they affected his decisionmaking on the eve of the war in 2003. It concludes with some thoughts on the policy implications of these findings.     

How not to pay for the war

As a result of allied subsidy and the influence of sunk costs, the marginal cost of the Gulf War to the US was reduced to negligible size. This result is at variance with the Olson‐Zeckhauser thesis that in an alliance “the small exploit the large.” A game theoretic alternative explanation suggests that the relation between allies resembles the game of Chicken, successfully played by the US. The ability to shift the marginal costs of war in the short term raises questions about the possible underestimation of long term effects.